European Union looks to new Ukrainian president to push reform agenda

The various European institutions rolled out the red carpet for him as he met European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso, the European Council President, Herman Van Rompuy, the European Parliament President and former Polish Prime Minister, Jerzy Buzek, and the EU's foreign policy high representative, Baroness Ashton.

They welcomed him with open arms. Barroso emphasised how the two had a good personal relationship, reminding journalists they had met when Yanukovich had been prime minister and also at the last EU/Ukraine summit in Kiev. All drew attention to the fact that he had come to the EU capital, before going to Russia a few days later. Ukraine's new president dismissed any significance in his travel plans. "It is 1 March today and on 1 March it is Brussels. When it is 5 March, it is Moscow," he said laconically.

The EU's determination to connect quickly and actively with the new president was apparent at the regular monthly meeting of the Union's foreign ministers in Brussels on 22 February. They discussed developments in Ukraine over lunch. The official communique of their deliberations is brief.

It records that they "held a forward-looking decision on the outcome of the Ukrainian presidential elections and the EU's future relations with Ukraine. Ministers agreed that the EU should engage with President Yanukovich and the new administration in Kiev and underlined the need for political and economic reform in Ukraine".

The message was clear. The EU was ready to give whatever support and encouragement it could, but it was also looking for evidence that the necessary internal reforms would be implemented. What was not spelt out in the official record was how the EU should initially engage with the new president.

The importance of that engagement was stressed at the lunch, hosted by Baroness Ashton. But it only became public knowledge some days later. Several foreign ministers, including Sweden's vastly experienced Carl Bildt, insisted on the EU being represented at the highest political level at Yanukovich's inauguration. All agreed. But it later emerged that neither of the EU's top two dignitaries - Barroso and Van Rompuy - could attend because of prior commitments.

So, Ashton went and represented the EU. It helped her to start the basis of a working relationship with the new Ukrainian president which they further developed during his Brussels visit. But in an early sign of the competing pressures the EU's new high policy representative has to contend with, Ashton was immediately criticised by some European media and ministers for failing to attend an informal ministerial defence meeting in Spain on the same day. None mentioned the fact that their colleagues as foreign ministers had helped to shape her priorities.

EU governments, and the European Parliament which debated the situation in Ukraine last month, have drawn two main lessons from the elections. The first is that the polls were a resounding success for democracy. The second is that the country now has a new opportunity to push ahead with vital reforms, which the EU hopes, could have a beneficial ripple effect across the region.

The Union is leaving Yanukovich in doubt about the progress it is expecting. It wants negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to be placed back on track as a first step to improve the investment climate. It is looking to agreement on the 2010 state budget to provide the necessary capital investment and is pressing for modernisation of the gas sector. In addition, it is emphasising the importance of the country coming into line with EU standards so that it may eventually enjoy the full trade benefits that should stem from the association agreement now being negotiated. Strengthening the independence of the judiciary, tackling corruption and protecting the rights of minorities are other areas of EU concern.

But as Stefan Fule, the EU enlargement and European neighbourhood policy commissioner, told MEPs last month, while the EU's task is to encourage Ukraine on the way ahead, the relationship was not a one way street. "The pace at which we get closer depends on the quality and depth of Ukraine's efforts," he said.

The Union is already providing Ukraine with some EUR 435 million worth of technical assistance. But meaningful reforms would bring bigger benefits. Adoption of gas legislation in line with European rules would enable Ukraine to join the Energy Community. The creation of a free trade area could double Ukraine's exports to the EU within a short period.

Perhaps the most symbolically important decision taken during Yanukovich's Brussels visit was the one to establish a road map towards Ukraine's strongly held objective of visa-free travel to the EU. According to the Ukrainian president, this could happen "within this year", while Barroso said this "would give a clear signal Ukraine is a member of the European family of nations".

For further information visit www.eu-russiacentre.org.

Rory WATSON, 15 March 2010