Spring 2010 Economic Forecasts
The economic recession came to an end in the EU in the third quarter of last year, in large part thanks to the exceptional crisis measures put in place under the European Economic Recovery Plan, but also owing to some other temporary factors. GDP growth is expected to average at about 1% in both the EU and the euro area this year. This represents a modest upward revision compared to the autumn 2009 forecast in light of the improved external environment. GDP growth is expected to regain ground more firmly by the end of 2010 only.
Next year, annual growth rates of about 1?% and 1?% are expected in the EU and the euro area, respectively. As indicated above, one of the non-EU countries covered in the Commission spring and autumn forecasts is the Russian Federation. The Russian economy experienced a contraction estimated at -7.9% in 2009 (after the 5.6% growth in 2008). For Russia, the Commission spring 2010 forecast foresees an almost V-shaped recovery, with growth rebounding to an expected 3.7% in 2010 and to 4% in 2011.