Urbanization – what shall we expect?*
It is believed by the majority of politicians and experts that the process of urbanization was completed in old Europe in XVIII-XIX centuries. In USA – in the beginning of the XX century. In the Soviet Union – a little bit later. And now only China and India and some other growing economies are experiencing this process. It is not true. There are no countries or places where urbanization is completed. An obvious fact is that all the time through it takes new shapes and creates new problems. Sometimes they are less, sometimes more acute. That means that all nations are to learn from the experience of the others and, at the same time may share with them their achievements and discoveries. Any good practices in this field are of relevance to everybody.
Though dealing with the challenge of urbanization will not be easy particularly to the developing world. Rapidly expanding urban areas there are expected to absorb the major part of the global population growth. According to the United Nations figures the growth between now and the year 2050 will be of 2.1 to 3.8 billion people. Around 90% of it will come in cities of less than one million people in developing world. It means that hundreds of small cities will grow into big cities surrounded by previously rural areas and big cities and capitals will become even bigger. It is like if a new medium size city appears somewhere on the planet once a week.
Another wrong assumption is that the process of urbanization is only about the accumulation of population in cities and concerns cities' development. In a reality the transfer of population from rural areas to cities creates many problems as to rural areas and rural life as to cities. It urges them to establish stable and reliable relationships with countryside. That's why problems of urbanization should be treated in a larger perspective of a fair balance between rural and urban development needs.
The list of these problems is very extensive. On the top of it one can find those of economic nature. People pushed to the urban style of existence should be provided with job, minimal quality of life and necessary infrastructure. Social problems of urbanization imply that there is a sophisticated policy of integrating new-comers in urban life, that society prevents their marginalization and that they are treated in a descent way. These problems are closely related to people socialization and psychological adaptation to new behavioral requirements. They are connected to the development of new, more and more stratified urban culture.
Another package of problems comprises appropriate management of cities development, search for reliable relationship between cities and countryside, prevention of different types of pollutions. A prominent place in this list is occupied by the struggle against organized crime and corruption. This phenomenon is closely related to city life discrepancies and took international magnitude more or less recently.
All these problems have political dimension. Without their lasting solution no political stability, no prosperity could be achieved. Let's treat them one by one.
Urbanization and economy
It is obvious that as a consequence of more and more people coming to live in cities and urban metropolitan areas society needs to create more and more jobs for them. But relationship is not that primitive. First of all, people aspire to better jobs. The society needs to perform structural changes in the economy in order to meet their aspirations. The process of reforming must be everlasting and should go without any interruption. At the second place, there is a need to find a proper balance between laborious sectors of economy and scientific-based ones. At the third place there is a need to develop service-oriented post-industrialized society without forgetting that it is impossible to construct modern reliable economy without constant development of competitive industries producing basic goods. This mistake was committed by the old European nations. They relied too much on service sector development and new economy that demand less and less manpower. As a result these countries have found themselves in a situation of too high unemployment impeding them to overcome consequences of global crisis and economic recession.
Everybody praises economic successes of China and India. Everybody is astonished by the fact that they managed to have more than two or three decades of fast and quality economic growth. Everybody would like to catch up with them in this sense. At the same time it was widely believed in the past that China is in a very peculiar situation. This situation cannot be compared with existing in all other countries. To absorb millions of those who leave rural areas in search for jobs in urban and metropolitan areas China's rate of economic growth must exceed 8%. Global economic crisis has shown that other countries are in the same position. If their economic growth is not fast enough they will risk to damage social peace and stability and break down an implied contract between power and society. The minimal rate appears to be of 2% for old European nations and of 4% for Russia.
Another face of the coin as far as we speak about internal migration is insufficient level of skills and education of so called new urban citizens. In this respect special emphasis must be put on creating educational facilities and infrastructure. That's why all countries that are in intensive phase of development now invest heavily in its establishment. If it is not done dissatisfaction of the youth and new urban citizens slop out on the streets. “Arab spring” brings blatant evidence in this sense. On the contrary South Korea could be a successful example. Almost all its population now has opportunities to get higher education. That's why its economy constantly receives new highly-professional staff. The same trend is observed now in China and India. Newly established standard for China now is to create every year at least one entirely new university and university campus of top world level. It is nearly a miracle.
Social dimension of urbanization
Social challenges to urbanization consist of two sets of issues. Of course all those who come to live in cities, urban and metropolitan areas – nationals or migrant workers from abroad – are to be integrated in cities social tissue. It is not an easy task. Thousands or millions should be provided with jobs, shelter, food, dissent conditions of life. They need physical protection, social assistance, appropriate medical treatment, transportation, acquiring professional skills, and etc. All that require future oriented infrastructure and put a very heavy burden on limited resources, state and local authorities have in their possession.
But it is only a part of the problem. Newcomers insert themselves in a new cultural environment and some time in a very hostile one. To become ordinary members of society they have to be granted individual rights, to be taught how to protect them and be assisted in that by special services. The amount of these rights may vary. Recently established international standards provide that under some minimal conditions they are granted such basic rights as to elect local authorities and to be elected. In addition different types of associations and well established procedures must exist creating impetus for involving them to a large extent in a social life. Without that they are doomed to be marginalized and join the family of aliens and socially excluded.
At the same time everybody expects that newcomers know what their social obligations are and try to fulfill them. To be treated decently they must know how to behave in a right way in different circumstances and what are the rules of the game they should comply with. Very often they are perceived as a threat to well established train of life, to this or that community customs and traditions. There is a largely spread fear that they may become more competitive than local population because they are ready to work more than others and admit lower salaries. That is why urban society should be equipped with special social mechanisms to prevent clashes between newcomers and local population and to include them in local social structures.
Nevertheless it is even more important to think how to meet aspirations of old cities inhabitants, of those who live in urban and metropolitan areas for generations. These aspirations are well known. All people are the same. They dream of ever better and better life conditions, modern apartments and houses, higher and stable incomes, guaranteed jobs and more lucrative salaries, good education facilities for their children, healthier urban environment, active cultural, social and political life, and etc. To meet these aspirations any society has to establish efficient state structures, to perform sound economic and social policy, achieve stable economic growth and grant local authorities with appropriate managerial tools, facilities and resources.
Urbanization and managerial dilemmas
It is very difficult, may be even impossible to find a city/a place with the management of which everybody is satisfied. It is enough to visit any city with a few exceptions to understand why. And even the most prosperous urban and metropolitan areas are full of districts that law-abiding people and ordinary police units try to avoid. They are unable to overcome inequalities between different groups of its inhabitants and their life conditions. They are asphyxiated by pollution and traffic gems. Disproportions and imbalances are apparent everywhere.
Explanations for such a stay of the play are numerous. (1) Cities cannot earn enough money to tackle with ever growing demand for services they are under obligation to supply or are left short of them by federal, national or regional governments. (2) Local authorities/municipalities try to compete with superior state structures for powers and influence, but permanently fail to win the battle. As a consequence competences they are invested with are not large enough to meet the challenges they face. (3) Local civil service often lacks necessary managerial skills to run complex economic, social and technical systems big, medium and even small cities represent. Political considerations on too many occasions intervene in rational way of actions local civil service has had to follow. (4) The speed of changes in the cities life is very high. Neither society, nor political and state entities possess enough flexibility to catch up with them. The same is true for business community.
For many years now expert society advances remedies which could be of help to come to grips with the situation. Here are the most relevant of them. Cities are to be construed as open systems able to grow not only in space, but qualitatively as well. Country as a whole and cities must be run as an entity to avoid clashes of competence and interests. Plans of perspective cities development should be elaborated by professionals, widely and openly discussed and serve as a viable indication for all – authorities, business community and citizens. And of course urban and metropolitan areas need qualified officials and managers.
When it is not the case cities become a source of deviation.
Urbanization and the battle against organized crime
Deprivation, social exclusion, joblessness, lack of social lifts, lack of money to give proper education for children – all these factors generate organized crime. Phenomenon of organized crime is not something alien for city life. It goes hand in hand with it. Cities have symbiotic connection with the organized crime. They not only produce organized crime but they are also market for services supplied by organized crime.
That's why it is impossible to meet this challenge relying only on law enforcement, strong-arm or administrative methods. In comparison with previous times organized crime has changed a lot. The field of its activities is widely diversified. It uses the newest technologies. But the main thing is that it penetrated state and political power structures, grew together with them. It partially controls different sectors of economy, not only construction business but Hi-Tec and bank sphere. To achieve a goal of wresting out organized crime we need to introduce efficient anti-money laundering legislation and control over its implementation, and unite all healthy forces of the society for a struggle against crime. However even that is not enough. It is necessary to do utmost to eradicate sources of organized crime listed above.
The prosperity of organized crime is feasible only in a totally or partially failed states. Organized crime establishes paralleled to government structures. It offers people things which the government fails to give, including protection, respect, stable income, care for children, their education and future. To defeat organized crime the modern state should be strong, effective and competitive.
But even that is not enough. In time, it should closely cooperate with all other states, inter-governmental, non-governmental and international organizations. Only in this case a chance to get the victory in this struggle appears. National crime became international long ago and struggle against it should be led in international format.
Urbanization and politics
As we have seen urbanization is a very complicated and complex phenomenon. It has many dimensions. It creates a lot of problems. It causes multiple risks. Accordingly it is necessary for each country to elaborate and implement proper policies of urbanization taking into account national context, peculiarities of national history and culture.
There is a need to have adequate urbanization planning and management. Final result is never achieved. Any accomplishments may be improved. Nevertheless best practices are to be shared. They are of relevance to everybody.
Even it could be urgent to think about transforming good practices sharing into core set of rules, procedures, mechanisms and institutions of contemporary international law.
© Mark ENTIN, professor of law, director of the
European studies institute at MGIMO-University
* Presentation made at 4 th BRICS Academic Forum “Security, Stability and Growth”, New Delhi, March 4-7, 2012.