Dignity, Democracies and Dynasties
Editorial by Michael Emerson
In 2009 CEPS published a book about democracy in the European neighbourhood with the sub-title Struggling Transitions and Proliferating Dynasties'. Although the geographic fit was not perfect, broadly speaking the East Europeans were struggling with their democratic transitions while the Arab world and Central Asia were seeing the consolidation or even proliferation of dynasties. These dynasties could be graded in several categories: the formal royal monarchies (Jordan, Morocco, Arabian Gulf), the father-to-son successions (Azerbaijan, Syria), the presidents whose sons were being groomed for succession (Egypt, Libya), the presidents without effective term limits (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and now soon Kazakhstan), and finally the case where the spirit if not the letter of the constitution was abused to a similar end (the Putin-Medvedev tango in Russia).
Tunisia and now Egypt disrupt this pattern. Dynasty is discredited. Ben Ali and his wife are out. Mubarak may not yet be out, but his son as successor is surely so. A new word is introduced in the Arab street, dignity', preferred it seems to - or at least accompanying - democracy. For democracy has all too often become a debased currency, and it is very Western. Dignity is the Arab choice, but we all want our democracies to be dignified, and we can think of some in Europe that are not. At least the time may now have come at last when the whole of Europe and its wider European neighbourhood can openly discuss democracy, and indeed dignified democracy, on the same terms. Gone now, hopefully, is the time when officials of the EU and its member states were not allowed to pronounce the word democracy in the Southern neighbourhood, but instead had to speak through euphemisms about good governance.
Tunisia has now joined the club of colour revolutions, and maybe Egypt is about to join them (at the time of writing today, 31st January 2011, it is not yet clear). However, what we do know are some sobering lessons learned from the colour revolutions of the mid-2000s. Ukraine's Orange revolution became a sad spectacle. Its foundations in a vibrant civil society were real. It foundered on irreconcilable competition and disagreement between its two leaders, Yuschenko and Timoshenko, and on their refusal to do anything about endemic corruption. It is replaced now by a regime that reverts towards authoritarianism and seems even more corrupt if that is possible. Georgia's Rose revolution saw its champion Saakashvili push though economic reform and an impressive de-corruption policy, although he has hardly been a model democrat. Kyrgyzstan's Tulip revolution saw one corrupt autocratic clan replaced by another one, until last year when Rosa Otunbayeva has struggled to do better. To say the very least, these colour revolutions did not switch into instant democracy.
The new member states of the European Union may have done better in their revolutions that threw out communism in 1989-91. The combinations of the EU anchor and a certain pre-communist democratic history surely explain this. However in South-East Europe the democratic model has been often deeply flawed by state capture, namely the ability of democratically elected leaderships to appropriate for their parties or cronies large shares of the state's economic assets. Somehow the electoral processes could not stop this, with democracy degenerating into switches between different leadership groups, each manipulating the rent from state assets. This manipulation of state assets to reward and preserve ruling elites is rife too in the Arab world. But only in the oil rich states could this extend to rewarding the entire population. For the others, including Tunisia and Egypt, the rewards could not go that far. However the new leaderships of Tunisia and Egypt will surely still be subject to these same temptations, which mean dysfunctional or perverted democracy.
How far-reaching will the discrediting of dynasties be? The royal monarchies seem not to be threatened. But they need to think about making their monarchies more credibly constitutional. If in 2012 Putin becomes President of Russia again, and his dynastic tango with Medvedev goes on, this will be without dignity.
The street revolutions are exhilarating and inspiring. But next comes the long haul of struggling democratic transitions. The more or less failed colour revolutions showed that successful democracy has to rely upon a deep institutional structure, political culture and civil society, rather than instant results from fresh, free and fair elections. In Western Europe this took centuries to develop. Let us not exaggerate. History has surely been accelerating, and the time scale may be that of a generation or two.
Michael EMERSON, CEPS Senior Research Fellow