CIS 2013 Sovereign Outlook: Structural Challenges Overshadow Relatively Healthy Fiscal Stance
In the new publication, entitled “CIS 2013 Sovereign Outlook: Structural Challenges Overshadow Relatively Healthy Fiscal Stance”, the authors say that their outlook for CIS sovereigns for 2013 is constrained by persistent structural deficiencies, such as the lack of economic diversification and weak institutions, which will take a long time to be addressed. However, CIS sovereign creditworthiness also faces limited downside risks given a relatively healthy fiscal stance in comparison to rating peers and low to moderate event risk in most countries. While Armenia, Belarus and Ukraine face downward pressures on their ratings, which are reflected in their negative rating outlooks, only the B3 (negative) ratings of Belarus and Ukraine face the elevated risk of sudden multi-notch downgrades given the significant external liquidity concerns...