EU and Belarus: After the Election*
The European Council on Foreign Relations is delighted to share with you our new policy memo - "EU and Belarus: After the Election," by Balazs Jarabik, Jana Kobzova and Andrew Wilson. The memo is being published in cooperation with FRIDE and coincides with the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on January 31, where a decision on potential sanctions on Belarus will be made.
The memo argues that although the Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka was able to pull-through contested December elections, his rule is now entering a period of acute stress. Elites are squabbling over the imminent privatisation of state assets. Manipulating this carve up will be the most important test of his abilities to stay on top. Against this backdrop, the post-election crackdown cannot be seen as a sign of regime strength and impunity - but fragility and discord within.
The authors call on the Union to devise a proactive strategy that changes Lukashenka's options, sets our own pace in relations with Minsk and raises the stakes with the regime and Russia. The EU needs a smart Belarus policy that coaxes those inside Belarus seeking to liberalise, closer to Europe, whilst imposing pin-point sanctions on those responsible for election brutality in a way that does not choke our ability to engage. Europe must also take advantage of Russia's growing frustration with its ally to begin a direct conversation with Moscow about Minsk - something that Lukashenka fears.
This memo has been prepared in collaboration with our partner organisation FRIDE. We hope you will find our publication interesting and we look forward to hearing your thoughts on the issues it raises.
© Balazs JARABIK, Jana KOBZOVA and Andrew WILSON
© European Council on Foreign Relations
* Originally published at: http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/the_eu_and_belarus_after_the_election
№2(52), 2011