The Arab World Poised between Revolution and Repression
The 22 Arab states are veering between revolution, repression, maintenance of the status quo and evolution. There is growing disenchantment, for the staying power of the old regimes and important social issues are standing in the way of popular demands for participatory justice and a say in political decision-making. Have all the peaceful protests in the Arab world, and especially those by young people, simply been in vain?
Middle East experts Christian Hanelt (Bertelsmann Stiftung) and Michael Bauer (University of Munich) analyze four tendencies and predict the emergence of several trends.
In order to ensure that the Arab Spring moves on into summer and does not relapse into winter, the European Union must become more involved in political terms, and it must come out far earlier and far more clearly in favour of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. The EU's policy on the Mediterranean and its neighbourhood policy both need to strike a new balance between value orientation and interests pure and simple.
In the current Spotlight Bauer and Hanelt also suggest that the EU should be a partner in the transformation process. Since there are sufficient resources on the financial level, the challenge is going to be prioritization and coordination. A “Marketplace of Ideas” could, in the case of Cairo, for example, help the numerous potential donors to find the right projects and locate the right partners. The immense tasks associated with the transformation process cannot be shouldered by EU member states acting on their own. Bauer and Hanelt suggest that each Arab country should receive help and support from a group of 3 EU states. These activities would of course have to be coordinated by the EU Council of Ministers.